MARKET RECAP
📈 Markets Break Losing Streak After Iran Signals Willingness to Negotiate

🤞 Investors have been crossing their fingers week after week for an end to the US-Iran conflict that has brought down the market (with the S&P 500 falling 9% from its all-time highs)…

📈 Well, this week, that wish was almost granted, as markets broke their 5-week losing streak and finally finished in the green! 🥳

🕊️ Most of the gains were made on Tuesday after Iran’s president told the president of the European Council his country had the “necessary will” to end the war, and Trump told Reuters he’d “be out of Iran pretty quickly,” leading to the best single-day gain for the S&P 500 since last spring (+2.91%).

💣 But this was quickly followed by a bit of a shock on Wednesday, when Trump made a prime-time address saying the US would “hit Iran extremely hard” and “bring them back to the Stone Ages”.

📉 Thursday morning, markets started crashing again (falling 1% on market open) as oil spiked 8% to $109/barrel.

🦸 But thankfully, dip-buyers stepped in, and the market ended the day flat, closing out the best week since last November. Across the indexes:

• The S&P 500 ended the week up +3.36%

• The Nasdaq 100 rose +4.44%

• The TSX rose +3.59%

✨ More good news came on Friday (a market holiday) after a US jobs report came out that March was stronger than expected (with unemployment falling from 4.4% to 4.3%), and February’s job decline was also revised from 133,000 to 92,000.

🧘‍♂️ This calmed the worries raised a few weeks ago by the Wall Street Journal that the Fed could have to increase interest rates, with the FedWatch tool now putting the probability of a rate increase at close to 0%.

😬 Now, while the green week was a very nice change from the sea of red, I wouldn’t celebrate just yet. There is still a ton of uncertainty shrouding the war, and more specifically, the timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (responsible for over 20% of the world’s oil trade), with some analysts saying this could take “months, not weeks.”

🗞️ Apart from the war, a few other big stories hit the headlines this week, so let’s shift gears and dive in to those! At a high level:

• 🚗 Tesla ($TSLA) crashed 5.5% on Friday after deliveries continued to drop, while Elon’s other company SpaceX prepares for the biggest IPO in history

• 🚀 Space stocks soar, with Intuitive Machines ($LUNR) jumping 36%, boosted by SpaceX IPO news and Artemis II launch

• 👟 Nike ($NKE) tumbled 15% after earnings as its turnaround efforts falter

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TOP STORY
🚘 Tesla’s Rough Year Continues as SpaceX Prepares for Biggest IPO in History

🚗 Tesla ($TSLA) reported its Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries this week, and well… let’s just say the company’s car business has seen better days.

📦 Total deliveries came in at 358,023 vehicles, 14% lower than last quarter and missing analyst expectations of 365,645, while total vehicle production came in at 408,386 (meaning over 50,000 cars sat unsold in inventory).

🔋 Even deliveries from its energy storage business dropped, with the company deploying just 8.8 GWh (a 38% drop from last quarter) against the 14.4 GWh analysts expected.

🔴 Tesla stock fell 5% on the news, and is now down -18% for the year and -25% from all-time-highs (although it’s worth noting the stock is still up over 50% in the past year)

🤖 Optimus is Tesla’s Future

🤖 With Tesla’s EV sales on the decline, and the EV market slowing everywhere except China, Musk has been rapidly positioning the company as an AI and robotics company, with Cybercab (Tesla’s self-driving robotaxis) and Optimus (its humanoid robots) becoming the core of Tesla’s promised future.

🏭 In fact, back in January of this year, Tesla announced it was ending production of its flagship Model S and X vehicles, to instead use the factory lines to build Optimus robots. With Musk saying:

😬 The problem is, despite Musk's sometimes very optimistic sentiment, over 85% of Tesla’s revenue still comes from cars, which is on the decline. And now even energy storage, the one business segment providing growth for the company, is headed in the same struggling direction.

🪄 As we’ve talked about before, a lot of Tesla is riding on the ‘Musk Magic’ Premium, a term coined by a writer at Fortune who pointed out that if Tesla were valued at a 30x price-earnings ratio (closer to Nvidia), it would be worth ~$100B, 90% less than the current $1T valuation, meaning the promise of the self-driving cars and Optimus robot accounts for 90% of the company value… leaving a lot riding on an uncertain future.

🪐 SpaceX Prepares for Biggest IPO in History

🥳 But while Tesla shareholders are having a rough week, investors in Elon's other company are throwing a party... as this week, SpaceX quietly filed for what could be the biggest IPO in stock market history.

🤫 On Tuesday, SpaceX confidentially filed with the SEC to IPO, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and aiming to raise $75 billion when it lists on the Nasdaq, with a target date of June 2026.

🤯 For context, that would make SpaceX the 6th most valuable company in the world.

👀 That’s a pretty eye-watering valuation… so what are experts saying about it? Well, SpaceX is on track for $25B in revenue for 2026, up from ~$15B last year, with a profit margin of ~50%. This would put SpaceX’s earnings at ~$12.5B, meaning a $1.75T valuation would put SpaceX at a 140x price-earnings multiple (a common measure of how expensive/cheap a stock is). For reference:

• ⚡️ Nvidia has a PE of ~36x

• 📊 The S&P 500 has a PE of ~27x

• 🚘 Tesla has a PE of ~330x

🚀 So still a very high valuation compared to the broader market, but much lower than Tesla. And when you factor in SpaceX’s growth, and the fact that SpaceX has a massive headstart and moat on any competition… I can see why many investors are excited about this IPO.

🚀 SpaceX (and Artemis II) Send Space Stocks Rocketing

📈 The SpaceX IPO wasn’t the only good news for space enthusiasts this week. The successful Artemis II launch (the first NASA mission to the moon since Apollo 17 in 1972) marked humanity's return to lunar orbit for the first time in over 50 years.

🌕 All this attention to the Space industry sent space stocks to the moon, with Rocket Labs ($RKLB) jumping +11%, the Roundhill Space And Technology ETF ($MARS) up +15%, and Intuitive Machines ($LUNR) up +37% (@anthony.invests, aka Blossom’s rocketman, definitely had a good week)

🤝 Intuitive Machines got the biggest boost this week due to its ties to NASA, as on March 24, NASA awarded it a $180M order for another mission.

✨ While much smaller than SpaceX (valued at $5B), many saw the Artemis II mission and Intuitive’s contract with NASA as a sign of things to come. If NASA is doubling down on lunar exploration, Intuitive is one of the few companies already contracted to support it, putting it in a strong position to win more business as the space race heats up.

🤔 What’s All This Mean for Tesla?

👀 Ok… so where does all this leave us with Tesla? Well, there are two ways to look at things. One is that SpaceX is proof that Elon still has the magic of building multi-trillion dollar companies… and that the magic SpaceX is feeling, Optimus will see next.

😬 The more pessimistic view is that Elon’s magic has been redirected elsewhere, and a distracted Musk may have less time to make sure Optimus can win the much more competitive robotics race…

❓ The answer is up for you to decide, but one things for sure - Elon sure has a knack for moving markets.

👟 All right, we’ve covered a lot already, but I think we got time for one more story… an update on Nike’s turnaround story.

🤖 But first, a quick word about an exciting new feature coming to Blossom tomorrow!

NEW FEATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
🤖 Beevis, Blossom’s AI Investing Companion, is Coming to Mobile!

🤖 Last Friday, we released a massive new feature for Blossom: Beevis, Your AI Investing Companion, but this was for the web-app only!

🥳 Well, I’m excited to share that this Monday (or latest Tuesday), Beevis will be live in-app as well!

😎 You guys have already asked over 5,000 questions to Beevis covering portfolio risk, market news, education and more, and the feedback has been incredible, so definetely give it a try if you haven’t already!

EARNINGS RECAP
👟 Nike Tumbles 16% After Earnings As Turnaround Efforts Falter

📋 While not nearly as exciting as Tesla, Nike ($NKE) reported its Q3 FY2026 earnings this week, beating revenue and earnings estimates, but missing on every other important metric.

• ✅ Revenue was $11.28 billion vs. $11.24 billion expected, essentially flat year-over-year

• ✅ Earnings per share was $0.35 vs. $0.28 expected, down 35% year-over-year

  • ✅ North America wholesale revenue rose 11%

  • ❌ Nike Direct revenues fell 4%

  • ❌ Greater China revenue fell 7%, but better than the 16% decline analysts expected

🏳️ Even though the company beat Wall Street’s top and bottom line expectations, management guided for sales to decline 3% over the next nine months, which had investors fearful, sending shares tumbling 15% this week.

🔄 Back in December with Nike’s Q2 earnings, we covered the turnaround efforts the company and its new CEO were venturing toward. Now, only 3 months later, and not much has changed for its outlook. In fact, the situation has gotten worse in some ways.

🇨🇳 China revenue is still the big headache it was last quarter, and remains a major contributor to Nike revenue (~15% comes from China), facing its seventh consecutive quarterly decline this quarter, falling another 10% due to rising domestic Chinese competition in the sportswear segment, and low investment by Nike in Chinese outlets.

🩸 As of today, Nike expects total sales to be negative for the rest of the year, with its recovery in China not expected to improve until fiscal 2027, or next spring. Next quarter, it anticipates total sales will fall 2-4%, worse than the +2% growth analysts had expected. It also expects China sales to plunge another 20%.

🏆 Is The “Win Now” Strategy Working?

🔨 Elliott Hill, Nike’s new CEO who took over in 2024, has been executing a major turnaround for the company recently with his “Win Now” strategy to rebuild wholesale, get rid of poor-selling inventory, and refocus on performance categories like running and basketball.

✅ And from last quarter to this quarter, there is genuine proof of this strategy moving in the right direction. For instance, Running and Global Football grew double digits, with Basketball up high single digits in North America. But many other segments don’t seem to be having the same results. Something Hill talked about recently:

⛈️ The real problem for Nike is simple. Even if parts of the turnaround are working, China is still a sore spot. And since China revenue accounts for such a large chunk of Nike’s total business, any growth or stability in other segments is offset by China declines.

😤 With the losses in China, Wall Street’s patience for Nike is ‘running out’ with three of Wall Street’s biggest banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America) all downgrading the stock, citing its dragging turnaround as a major headwind.

🔍 One analyst at Bank of America (BoA) put it bluntly:

📉 And with Nike now down 67% in the past 5 years, even the most loyal bulls are starting to lace up their running shoes and head for the exit.

FROM THE BLOSSOM COMMUNITY
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